Helios Power Systems (name changed) manufactures DC-DC converters, inverters, and custom power supplies for telecom, railway, and defence applications. Revenue: ₹95 Cr. Three business units with separate sales teams. For four consecutive years, Helios missed its annual revenue target — by between 18% and 42%. The board had lost confidence in the forecasting process.
"Our forecasts weren't wrong because we didn't know how to sell," said the CFO. "They were wrong because we didn't know what was actually in our pipeline. We were forecasting an illusion."
Stage-Weighted Forecasting: The Fix
VynDeal introduced stage-weighted probability forecasting. Each pipeline stage was assigned a close probability based on Helios's own historical conversion data:
- New Contact → Warm: 8% probability
- Sample Sent: 20%
- RFQ Received: 42%
- Quoted: 56%
- Commercial Negotiation: 78%
- PO Expected: 91%
The first stage-weighted forecast showed a realistic ₹82 Cr pipeline (vs claimed ₹124 Cr). The CFO called it "the first honest number I've seen from this team."
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The Three-Bucket Forecast Model
Helios adopted VynDeal's three-bucket forecast for every quarterly board presentation:
- Pipeline (conservative): Stage-weighted sum of all active deals — the base case
- Best case: All RFQ-stage and above deals at 100% — the optimistic upside
- Committed: Commercial negotiation and PO expected only — what production planning is based on
The range — "we will likely do between ₹82–95 Cr, committed ₹68 Cr" — gave the board something they could plan around. Manufacturing, procurement, and cash flow planning all improved as a result.
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"Our board had stopped believing our forecasts. The first quarter with VynDeal stage-weighted data, we hit within 9% of forecast. The CFO called me after board sign-off and said: 'That's the first time in 4 years we've been able to plan with confidence.' That call was worth more than the entire VynDeal subscription." — CEO, Helios Power Systems